Bill, I respect your opinions, but I disagree with your conclusion.  There are indeed qualified experts who believe that an EMP is not a serious threat.  I have read a number of these.  But those voices do not represent the majority.  I have done quite a bit of research on this for a draft novel I have written.  There is serious concern at many levels about the danger of EMPs.

"The high-altitude nuclear weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP) is one of a small number of threats that has the potential to hold our society seriously at risk and might result in defeat of our military forces."  This is from the United States EMP Commission.  That is the Federal Government.  This report came out at the same time as the 9/11 report and thus had little attention.  The report goes on to say "The damage level could be sufficient to be catastrophic to the Nation, and our current vulnerability invites attack."  You can find the report at http://empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf.

I don't think anyone is saying that the chances for an EMP attack, or a naturally occurring EMP from something like a solar flare, are large.  But we already know solar flares have caused damage to the electric grid in previous years.  That is not theoretical.  What is of great concern, and the Commission states this, is how bad the nation would suffer if such an attack by nuclear weapon takes place.  We are skilled at risk management in our profession.  We know that the likelihood of a disaster is one factor that defines the level of risk.  The other is how bad an event would be if it happened.  So something that is more prone to happen and that carries great potential for widespread damage is a very high risk.  But events that aren't as likely, but have the ability to cause extreme damage, are also risks to be considered.

EMP weapons exist.  They are called nuclear bombs.  The number of nations that possess these is growing.  The real difficulty is a bomb small enough to place on a rocket and then the ability to multi-stage the rocket to achieve sufficient altitude to produce the desired effect.  Tests by both the U.S. and Soviet Union in the early 60s demonstrated that an EMP weapon is real.  The damage was much more limited in that era as there were far fewer sensitive electronics to feel the effect.

EMPs represent one of the greatest weapons for asymmetric warfare.  Asymmetric warfare is when one nation, or group, has minimal ability to defeat an opponent force on force but can do great damage through a non-conventional attack.  Most nations won't consider an EMP attack against the U.S. for fear of equal or greater reprisal.  But a nation like North Korea has much less to lose in such an attack.  The same is even more true with a group like ISIS where there is no real target against which to retaliate.

An EMP has the potential to destroy much of our economy and social structure.  Is the risk great today?  Probably not.  But it is in the interests of our country for a public/private initiative to improve equipment to make it less susceptible to attack.  And this is the conclusion of the Committee.

I don't believe that "tin foil hats" or Fox are relevant to this discussion.  With the good information Bill chose to share it is a shame to personalize this topic.  It would be easy to say my opinion is that we should take it seriously.  The truth is that many professionals who are smarter and better informed state this.  I hope the reality of an EMP in any form is something that we never have to face.

Needless to say, these opinions are wholly mine and my employer has no idea I shared them!


David B. Steward, CRM IGP
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