I also have great respect for your opinion David, although we sometimes must agree to disagree.  I think I did mention nuclear bombs, so that's covered, we both agree that is a possibility, however remote.  Non-nuclear weapon delivery of an EMP is far more problematic, and multiple sources I've read say it doesn't currently exist.  I'll just throw this out there that if another country or group was lobbing nuclear missiles at the USA, in an attempt to effect an EMP, we might have a lot more to worry about than if our iPhones and SUV's work!

I have to disagree that North Korea has much less to lose.  I think that an attack by North Korea against the United States with nuclear weapons would have Americans calling for an all out assault against what would become known as the large crater pocked area formerly known as North Korea. We don't need nuclear weapons to do this.

I don't believe EMP is not a serious threat.  What I do believe is that such a threat is much more unlikely than other serious threats that are much more likely, and much more urgent, if you are prioritizing threats against scarce resources, as we all must do.  I too read a study (by the Bush administration) that claimed a real EMP event directed against the US would result in 80% casualties.  By the way, a (fiction) book has already been written based on this study - which you can take as really interesting science fiction, or a prediction of the future, depending on your point of view.

Hugh shared that he got some of his information from Fox "News" and quoted a piece on there as a source.  Fox news is not a credible source, as many research organizations, and other TV shows, continually point out.  I attribute any number of "facts" coming out of Fox "News" as pure entertainment of the tinfoil hat variety.  I'm sure some people may have a problem with that, but there are so many better sources to make a point.

In regards to what the majority think about EMP, or any other topic, well the majority are often wrong.  Here is how the Israeli government deals with majority conclusions that I think you would find interesting:

As describe by Yosef Kupperwasser, who used to head the Research Division of the Israel Defense Forces, in Lesson's From Israel's Intelligence Reforms [1]:

"The devil’s advocate office ensures that AMAN’s intelligence assessments are creative and do not fall prey to group think. The office regularly criticizes products coming from the analysis and production divisions, and writes opinion papers that counter these departments’ assessments. The staff in the devil’s advocate office is made up of extremely experienced and talented officers who are known to have a creative, “outside the box” way of thinking. Perhaps as important, they are highly regarded by the analysts. As such, strong consideration is given to their conclusions and their memos  go directly to the office of the Director of Military Intelligence, as well as to all major decision makers. The devil’s advocate office also proactively combats group think and conventional wisdom by writing papers that examine the possibility of a radical and negative change occurring within the security environment. This is done even when the defense establishment does not think that such a development is likely, precisely to explore alternative assumptions and worst-case scenarios."

Ok, I think I've covered the major points.

I would just finish by saying that if someone posts an opinion on social media, which this board certainly is, they should be prepared for the opinion to be criticized.  Please understand that when I criticize an opinion I am criticizing the opinion, and not the person, although some make take any criticism personally that is not my intent.  If my criticism offends someone, it is no doubt because I have a very blunt style in expressing myself, and because I don't have one of those filters that more and more people seem to have everyday, which prevents them from offending anyone.  I also have a very sensitive bullshit meter that goes off all the time.  Yes, I said a bad word, oh well..

Like you David, for better or worse, all my opinions are my own.  I'm sure my employer has completely different opinions on any number of topics, and if we agree on a topic other than those called for in my job description, it's likely to be mere chance.

Bill Creamer
Records & Conflicts Manager
New York, NY
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